Predicting and mitigating environmental change

DeforestationAccurate prediction is vital for managing the effects of local, regional and global change. Current models make simplified assumptions about biological diversity and feedbacks between climate and ecosystems, despite these being crucial determinants of future dynamics. Basic science is needed to understand and quantify these ecological and evolutionary processes, exploiting data from past evolutionary changes in response to changing global environments, conducting long-term field and controlled environment experiments, and incorporating those findings into global models. The accuracy of model predictions must then be validated against field data. In turn, managing the impacts of global change requires predictive models of how component species and ecosystems respond and adapt to global change. Quantifying and dealing with inherent uncertainty is a key requirement.

Researchers
Colin Prentice  Research centres on understanding how plants react to and interact with changes in climate and other aspects of the physical environment. His strategy is based on modelling.
Jon Lloyd  Modelling and measurement of terrestrial carbon and water vapour fluxes at the leaf, canopy and global level
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Example project
 The mesocosms project   

Assessing the impact of environmental stressors on freshwater ecosystems, using 95 large ponds

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